Sunday: earthquake.
Monday: Typhoon.
Tuesday: the expected Typhoon didn't come, but an unexpected earthquake came.
So let's do a little mathematics calculation and estimation.
The probability for the over M8 Tokai earthquake to happen in recent 30 years is 87% according to the official report released this year. Assuming the probability it happens on any day is the same, then the number for everyday is 0.87/30/365=0.00008. The number of death is estimated to be around 10000, say about 1/1000 of the 13 million population in Tokyo. Then the probability falls on each one's head is about 0.00000008. Seems not high, doesn't it?
However, considering that on average only 1 person dies in traffic accidents each day in Tokyo, and the even much less with airplane accidents, earthquake becomes probably the most possible reason for me to die as long as I stay in Tokyo. I probably have beaten a lower probability for getting into university. It's easier to die then, nice discovery...
By the way, the probability of winning the big Lotto is even less than got killed in a traffic accident, so don't believe that if you survive a big earthquake you will be lucky enough to win a Lotto. Especially not in Japan. The 3 guys out of 6 I had lunch with today went through the 1995 Kansai one. Think they are all going to win the big prize? I'm not that optimistic!
Monday: Typhoon.
Tuesday: the expected Typhoon didn't come, but an unexpected earthquake came.
So let's do a little mathematics calculation and estimation.
The probability for the over M8 Tokai earthquake to happen in recent 30 years is 87% according to the official report released this year. Assuming the probability it happens on any day is the same, then the number for everyday is 0.87/30/365=0.00008. The number of death is estimated to be around 10000, say about 1/1000 of the 13 million population in Tokyo. Then the probability falls on each one's head is about 0.00000008. Seems not high, doesn't it?
However, considering that on average only 1 person dies in traffic accidents each day in Tokyo, and the even much less with airplane accidents, earthquake becomes probably the most possible reason for me to die as long as I stay in Tokyo. I probably have beaten a lower probability for getting into university. It's easier to die then, nice discovery...
By the way, the probability of winning the big Lotto is even less than got killed in a traffic accident, so don't believe that if you survive a big earthquake you will be lucky enough to win a Lotto. Especially not in Japan. The 3 guys out of 6 I had lunch with today went through the 1995 Kansai one. Think they are all going to win the big prize? I'm not that optimistic!
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