上文是我打算买个50L左右的包，9月去德国玩的时候用，但是发现在日本买比在德国买贵很多。
Me: 在日本户外用品卖得好贵！我打算去德国买个包背回去了。
Jin: 啊，原来如此！看过一本日本人写的旅游指南，里面欣喜地说，“慕尼黑市中心的两间运动品商店物美价廉，令人心动，堪称天堂”，云云... Faint，跟其他店铺比起来，那两间的东西令人发指的贵...
下文是最后我还是没忍住，在日本买了一个。自我安慰说如果在德国看到便宜的就再买俩，然后回来卖了...
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
chance to die
Sunday: earthquake.
Monday: Typhoon.
Tuesday: the expected Typhoon didn't come, but an unexpected earthquake came.
So let's do a little mathematics calculation and estimation.
The probability for the over M8 Tokai earthquake to happen in recent 30 years is 87% according to the official report released this year. Assuming the probability it happens on any day is the same, then the number for everyday is 0.87/30/365=0.00008. The number of death is estimated to be around 10000, say about 1/1000 of the 13 million population in Tokyo. Then the probability falls on each one's head is about 0.00000008. Seems not high, doesn't it?
However, considering that on average only 1 person dies in traffic accidents each day in Tokyo, and the even much less with airplane accidents, earthquake becomes probably the most possible reason for me to die as long as I stay in Tokyo. I probably have beaten a lower probability for getting into university. It's easier to die then, nice discovery...
By the way, the probability of winning the big Lotto is even less than got killed in a traffic accident, so don't believe that if you survive a big earthquake you will be lucky enough to win a Lotto. Especially not in Japan. The 3 guys out of 6 I had lunch with today went through the 1995 Kansai one. Think they are all going to win the big prize? I'm not that optimistic!
Monday: Typhoon.
Tuesday: the expected Typhoon didn't come, but an unexpected earthquake came.
So let's do a little mathematics calculation and estimation.
The probability for the over M8 Tokai earthquake to happen in recent 30 years is 87% according to the official report released this year. Assuming the probability it happens on any day is the same, then the number for everyday is 0.87/30/365=0.00008. The number of death is estimated to be around 10000, say about 1/1000 of the 13 million population in Tokyo. Then the probability falls on each one's head is about 0.00000008. Seems not high, doesn't it?
However, considering that on average only 1 person dies in traffic accidents each day in Tokyo, and the even much less with airplane accidents, earthquake becomes probably the most possible reason for me to die as long as I stay in Tokyo. I probably have beaten a lower probability for getting into university. It's easier to die then, nice discovery...
By the way, the probability of winning the big Lotto is even less than got killed in a traffic accident, so don't believe that if you survive a big earthquake you will be lucky enough to win a Lotto. Especially not in Japan. The 3 guys out of 6 I had lunch with today went through the 1995 Kansai one. Think they are all going to win the big prize? I'm not that optimistic!
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